Hey,
Most startups won’t IPO or get acquired, but that doesn’t mean they fail. This week, we’re breaking down what really happens to the vast majority of companies, the exits no one talks about, and how to make sure you don’t get stuck chasing a fairytale that never comes.
Also;
📸 - Social Snapshot- Running a startup
📊 - PE Vesting Schedules
🎙️ - Why Jess Loren turned down a $20M offer
🆓 - Resources to support your scale
Welcome to issue 120.
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Social Snapshot
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Jess Loren: The Founder Who Said No to $20M
Last week, I chatted with Jess Loren, CEO and founder of Global Objects. We have a candid talk about building in the digital twin technology space. Plus, challenges of raising as a female founder, and how she got backing from Microsoft and the Vatican. Learn more about DeepTech and generative AI, and juggling the hat of founder, mum, and fundraiser.
Watch Now
Listen on:
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Data Corner
PE Executive Equity
VCs don’t have a monopoly on equity anymore.
Private equity-backed companies, aka the quieter giants with way more capital, are now dishing out meaningful equity to execs, too. But it works very differently than in startup land. Vesting terms, grant sizes, and performance triggers are all over the map depending on whether you’re at a PE-backed corp or LLC.
Carta’s latest data shows:
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Monthly vesting is standard at corps (63%), but annual rules at LLCs (72%).
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Most performance equity is tied to hard financial returns like MOIC or IRR, not some vague "milestone" fluff.
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Median CEO grants are 2–2.6% of ownership, depending on structure.
Equity's not just for unicorn-chasers anymore. PE plays hardball, but if you’re in the right seat, it can be just as lucrative (if not more).
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Raising Capital for your startup?
Thunder's mission is to guide founders toward the right path to reach their North Star, be it through securing equity or debt financing or navigating the path to a successful exit.
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Most Startups Don’t IPO or Get Acquired, So What Happens to Them?
There’s a common fairytale in the startup world: you build something incredible, raise a few big rounds, and either IPO or get acquired for an eye-watering sum. Founders love this story. Investors push this story. But problem is, it’s mostly fiction.
The overwhelming majority of startups don’t go public. They don’t get acquired. Many just exist. They might be profitable. They might struggle. Some pivot endlessly, others slowly wind down. A lot of them land somewhere in the middle, chugging along without a flash headline exit.
I’ve been through four exits myself, and none of them were the textbook VC dream. One was a structured deal where we negotiated earnouts over time. Another involved a secondary sale where early investors and team members took money off the table without a full acquisition. Every single exit required a level of flexibility that most founders don’t prepare for.
The three most likely outcomes
If you’re running a startup, here’s what’s actually on the table:
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You build a profitable business and keep running it
Not every company needs to exit. If you’re generating solid cash flow, you might not need outside capital at all. But VCs won’t tell you that because their model relies on high-growth, high-multiple outcomes. If you own the majority of your business and it’s paying you well, congrats, you’ve already won. -
You sell in a quiet, non-headline-worthy deal
Most acquisitions aren’t billion-dollar buyouts. Many are small, strategic sales, think PE firms rolling up multiple companies or bigger players absorbing you for talent, tech, or market share. These deals can be life-changing, even if TechCrunch never writes about them. -
You wind it down or pivot
Not every startup makes it, and that’s okay. Sometimes shutting down is the best financial and mental health move. Other times, a pivot can breathe new life into a business, shifting into a service model, licensing tech, or becoming a niche SaaS play. Flexibility is key.
Most founders aren’t planning for these outcomes
VC-backed founders are often coached to chase the biggest possible outcome, which means they don’t plan for alternative paths. That’s how you get founders raising money on terms that make an exit nearly impossible or rejecting great offers because they think they can 10x it in a year. (Spoiler: most don’t.)
If you’re building a company, you need an honest conversation with yourself and your stakeholders: What’s the best-case scenario? What’s the worst? And most importantly, what are the realistic paths in between?
The playbook for founders
If you’re not on the IPO or unicorn acquisition track, here’s how to set yourself up for success:
- Structure your cap table for flexibility: Too much dilution makes non-traditional exits tough. Protect founder equity where possible.
- Think beyond VC money: Alternative funding sources (revenue-based financing, PE, strategic investors) give you more options.
- Optimize for profitability: The moment you can self-sustain, you’re in control. That’s power.
- Know your secondary options: You don’t have to run the business forever. Founder secondaries, structured buyouts, and roll-ups are all viable paths.
Where does this leave you?
If you’re a founder, the goal isn’t just to “exit”; it’s to create an outcome that actually works for you. That could mean selling, it could mean running a cash-flow machine, or it could mean pivoting into something entirely new. The key is planning for all of these possibilities before you hit a wall.
At Thunder, we help founders think through these options. Whether it’s raising capital, finding strategic buyers, or exploring structured exits, the goal is the same: get you to a successful outcome, whatever that looks like for your company.
Because at the end of the day, the best exit is the one that actually happens.
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Fundraising Resources
💸 - Access working capital fast - Explore options for free
😍 - Free list of AI Recommended VCs - Apply for free
👨💻 - Free fundraising coaching session - Schedule 15 minutes with us
📝 - Playbook for Negotiating Term Sheets - Download it Here
💽 - Playbook for Setting Up and Sharing Your Data Room - Download it Here
✉️ - Playbook for Sending Investing Updates - Download it Here
📞 - Guide to Nailing Your First Calls With Investors - Download it Here
📆 - Your 12-month Fundraising Plan- Download it Here
💫 - Pitch deck design services for founders by VCs - Decko
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Let's stay in touch:
- Written by Jason Kirby - https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasonrkirby
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