Hey,
If your VC partners have recently started ghosting you, and your growth has been... less hockey stick, more flat- then it may be time to consider some side-sell options- you may be a venture orphan.
Also:
đ¸ - PE and AI
đ - Spray and Pray
đ - Resources for founders
Welcome to issue 129.
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Not every exit needs a 90-slide deck and 6 months of pitch calls.
If youâre a founder under $1M revenue and just want to sell without the VC dance, Flippa gets it done. No suits, no song and dance, just real buyers.
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đ PE and AI by Jason Shuman on X.
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Everyone loves to dunk on âspray and pray.â Because apparently, being selective = being smart. But when Dan Gray at Equidam ran 20,000 simulations of $50M funds, the diversified strategy (100 portcos at $0.4M each) beat the high-conviction one (20 portcos at $2M) almost every time. Higher average returns, higher median, and a 99.7% chance of not losing money. Only the top 5% of funds did better by concentrating.
Translation: unless you're Sequoia, more shots > better aim. Maybe VCs arenât gods of picking, maybe theyâre just clinging to a narrative that flatters them.
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Thunder's mission is to guide founders toward the right path to reach their North Star, be it through securing equity or debt financing or navigating the path to a successful exit.
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You raised, you grew, you clicked ânext roundâ in every pitch. But now your board emails go unread, and the checks have dried up. Your investors are onto new unicorns, and youâve become a venture orphan.
Itâs not a failure label. Itâs a signal that you have to switch things up.
It's not a commonly used term, so let me break it down: a venture orphan is a startup that still has traction, revenue, customers, maybe even profit, but no active investor champion.
Common triggers:
Fund cycle shift: Your backers are chasing deals in their new fund.
Plateaued growth: You sit at $2â5M ARR, not on a 3Ă trajectory.
Sponsor departure: The partner who believed in you left, and no one else picked up the torch.
Survival mode: You weathered a down quarter or two, enough to drop off the update deck.
Globally, venture deal activity remained robust in Q1âŻ2025, with 3.9k transactions worth $91.5B, but 71% of these were in hot verticals like AI, not in âsteadyâstateâ companies like yours might be (source). Meanwhile, most lowerâmiddleâmarket SaaS M&A deals in 2024 were under $50M, which shows the appetite for smaller, profitable businesses.
Hope is not a strategy. Every month you wait:
Your leverage erodes. A steady but unspectacular track record loses its shine.
Leaking momentum: Customers churn. Competitors capture mindshare.
Market windows close: Strategic buyers fill their gaps elsewhere.
Last year, overall M&A deal volumes dipped. That means fewer midâmarket acquirers, and more competition for their limited attention.
Before you call for help, you need to figure out where you're at. Ask:
Board Silence: Have you gone 3+ months without an investor meeting?
Funding Gaps: Did your last raise close 12+ months ago, with no followâon path?
Sponsor Flight: Has your lead partner left the fund or passed your updates to juniors?
Survival Margin: Are you just breaking even, without a clear 2Ăâ3Ă growth runway?
If you checked 2+ boxes, consider yourself on the orphan bench, and itâs time to change tactics.
1. Reframe your story.
Youâre not âselling because you failed.â Youâre packaging a profitable, low-risk asset that fills a buyerâs strategic puzzle.
2. Run a discreet, structured process.
Inbound interest is a lottery. Instead, build a shortlist of 10â15 targeted acquirers: PE rollâups, corporate strategics, growthâstage companies in adjacent markets, and engage them systematically.
3. Use the Reverse Demo.
Rather than vague teasers, share a coâdevelopment pilot: âLet us integrate our module into your platform for 60 days; see the metrics, talk to customers, then decide on acquisition.â This lowers buyer risk and accelerates term sheet delivery.
4. Leverage your Orphan Index as a selling point.
Frame it: âOur buildâmeasureâlearn cycle hit a plateau, but thatâs exactly why now is the time to bolt feature x into your stack.â Turn your stagnation into strategic alignment.
5. Benchmark with data.
Show how similar deals delivered ROIC within 18 months for strategic buyers. Strengthen your negotiating position.
If a full sale isnât right, consider hybrid exits:
Equity carveâouts: Spin off your core tech into a subsidiary, sell a majority stake to a PE sponsor, and retain a highâvalue royalty on future revenue.
Asset licensing: Monetize IP via multiâyear licensing deals, generating nonâdilutive cash while you stay in control.
Management buyâins: Bring in a small PE firm to buy down your valuation, then coâlead the next growth phaseâsharing risk and reward.
These structures often fly under the radar, but for an orphaned company, they can unlock hidden value without abandoning your vision.
A realistic play looks like:
Situation: My startup raised $12âŻmillion Series âŻA in 2017, hit $1.5 million ARR by 2018 with 1M+ users, then cash got tight and we knew raising a proper Series A was unlikely.
Diagnosis: Orphan Index score: 3/4 (board was unicorn or bust, competition was outpacing us (Google, Amazon, Microsoft), we were burning a lot of money)
Action: We ran a confidential, hyper-targeted Reverse-Demo with Walmart, Verizon, and Samsung over a 6 month proces when I was planning to sell LiquidSky back in 2018. It lead to Walmart putting in a competitive offer to acquire us which closed by the end of 2018.
Outcome: Some investors made 10x, we retained the value of the company by having running a competitive process. Founders didn't have a great outcome, but it definitely would have been worse if we try to keep going.
Not a 100Ă outcome like our board wanted, sure, but a real, defendable win.
Being orphaned isnât death, itâs a CTA:
Diagnose your Orphan Index.
Embrace a sellâside mindset.
Explore full and hybrid exits.
Run a process with professional support.
Time for a plug: at Thunder, we specialize in guiding âoffâplanâ founders through this pivot. Because when VCs move on (and they do), you keep building value, and you deserve partners who see it. Hit me up for M&A support.
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đ¸ - Access working capital fast - Explore options for free
đ - Free list of AI Recommended VCs - Apply for free
đ¨âđť - Free fundraising coaching session - Schedule 15 minutes with us
đ - Playbook for Negotiating Term Sheets - Download it Here
đ˝ - Playbook for Setting Up and Sharing Your Data Room - Download it Here
âď¸ - Playbook for Sending Investing Updates - Download it Here
đ - Guide to Nailing Your First Calls With Investors - Download it Here
đ - Your 12-month Fundraising Plan- Download it Here
đŤ - Pitch deck design services for founders by VCs - Decko
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