Hey,
In this issue, I talk about who acquires founder-led startups. Most founders assume strategics, rollups, or PE firms will come knocking when the time is right, but the reality is a lot less romantic and a lot more mechanical.
Also:
đ¸ - The Windsurf x Google deal
đ - The Rise of ultra-unicorns
đ - Resources for founders
Welcome to issue 130
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Not every exit needs a 90-slide deck and 6 months of pitch calls.
If youâre a founder under $1M revenue and just want to sell without the VC dance, Flippa gets it done. No suits, no song and dance, just real buyers.
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đ Employee equity by Alex Cohen on X.
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According to this report by Crunchbase, the $5B+ unicorn club is no longer rare air; itâs rapidly becoming private market royalty. These ultra-elite startups make up just 13% of unicorns by count but hold over half the $6T total valuation. In 2025 alone, 17 new names joined the club, including Thinking Machines (yes, the one with a $2B seed round), Glean, Abridge, and Harvey.
Most of these giants were founded between 2011â2018, and their latest sky-high valuations are skewed toward post-2021. Exit activity is slow, but this cohort is only getting bigger, richer, and harder to ignore
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Thunder's mission is to guide founders toward the right path to reach their North Star, be it through securing equity or debt financing or navigating the path to a successful exit.
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Some founders build toward a buyer that doesnât exist.
They imagine a strategic acquirer will spot the brilliance of their product and offer a generous multiple. Or that a rollup will swoop in, recognize the synergies, and move quickly. Or that private equity will see the long-term potential and write a check big enough to fund the next chapter.
But most of those buyers arenât buying what youâre selling, at least not in the way youâre selling it. If you're building with an exit in mind, it's worth knowing who acquires founder-led companies, and what they're really looking for when they do. Because while most founders fantasize about getting acquired, very few are building something that's acquirable by anyone outside their imagination.
Acquirers donât buy âvision.â Not anymore. The idealized buyer wants your product, your team, your culture, your roadmap. The real buyer wants your customers, your cashflow, and as few headaches as possible. If they can integrate your company with minimal friction, and it moves their metrics? Youâve got a shot.
Buyers pay for fit. Strategic fit. Operational fit. Financial fit. Not ambition. Not intent. Fit. Founders often get distracted chasing the âperfect buyerâ or âideal strategicâ when theyâd be better off asking: who benefits most from owning this business, and how painful would that transition be?
Here's what I see a lot of founders get stuck on:
Strategics are the dream exit for most founders. A big tech or industry incumbent notices your company, sees the value, and buys you for a life-changing number because it aligns with their roadmap. That can happen. It just usually doesnât.
Strategic acquirers are big organizations (think the big names in any space like Hubspo in CRM or Stripe in payments). They move slowly. There are internal domains. Budgets are allocated quarterly or annually, and acquisitions, especially under $100M, are rarely prioritized unless thereâs a fire to put out.
We worked with a founder running a $4M ARR DevTools company with top-tier enterprise adoption. They had months of friendly corp dev convos with a well-known public company. Everyone seemed aligned. Then, silence. Why? The internal product team had decided to build something adjacent, and corp dev didnât have the mandate to override them.
This happens constantly. Strategics buy companies to fill critical holes or block threats. Not because they liked your pitch. Unless you're solving a current, visible pain, and they donât have the team to solve it themselves, you're a wishlist item, not a priority.
Even when a deal is on the table, it's rarely fast. Expect months of cross-departmental alignment, risk review, and âjust one more meeting.â And if your company doesnât plug in easily, same tech stack, same customer base, same compliance standards, itâs probably not worth the effort to them.
When do strategics buy?
You're solving a priority problem they canât ignore.
You're starting to gain market share in a segment theyâre neglecting.
A competitor is circling, and theyâd rather pay than fight.
Otherwise, interest isnât intent. Itâs exploration.
Rollups get a reputation for speed. When they're actively consolidating a space, founders assume they'll be the next to get a call. And if youâre in-market with a recognizable niche, thatâs not off-base.
But rollups donât buy on hype or narrative. They buy on spreadsheet logic: theyâre usually private equity-backed and laser-focused on operational leverage. They want to buy multiple companies in the same vertical, strip out redundancy, and grow the whole portfolio more efficiently.
If your business has stable revenue, high gross margins, low churn, and repeatable processes, youâre going to catch their eye. If itâs founder-reliant, operationally messy, or not profitable? Youâre noise.
One founder we advised ran a vertical SaaS company doing $6.5M ARR with 28% EBITDA. They werenât growing fast, but the business was sticky, clean, and scalable. A rollup made an all-cash offer within 45 days. No negotiations, no fluff. The numbers worked.
Compare that to another founder at $3M ARR with negative margins and a team of 17, none of whom had job descriptions. Same category, same market, zero interest.
Rollups optimize, they donât nurture. They buy systems, not stories.
When do rollups buy?
Youâre in their target vertical.
Your financials are consistent and easy to plug in.
Your team can either be absorbed or replaced without major disruption.
The fastest path to a rollup deal is looking like a clean cog, not a snowflake.
Founders often misunderstand private equity. They think PE will fund their vision, help them grow, and give them more support than a VC.
Thatâs rarely how it plays out.
PE firms buy cash flow. Theyâre not looking for bets, theyâre looking for control. If they canât model out a clear return with high confidence, theyâre not making an offer.
You might be âinteresting,â but theyâre not in the business of interesting. Theyâre in the business of multiplying money and exiting cleanly within a defined timeline.
Weâve seen both sides of this. A founder with a $12M ARR healthtech company doing 30% margins fielded three offers in one quarter. Why? Bootstrapped. Recurring revenue. Operational levers everywhere. Clean diligence.
Another founder running a high-profile DTC brand doing $10M topline with no profit thought PE would love their âcommunity flywheel.â The offer was 60% upfront, 40% earnout, and a mandatory CEO replacement. They passed.
PE isnât buying you. Theyâre buying the machine. Ideally, without the founder involved at all.
When do PE firms buy?
Youâre profitable (or very close).
Thereâs fat to trim or channels to scale.
Youâre in a space where they already own similar assets and can plug you in.
And if you're founder-led with no clear succession plan? Expect less cash up front and more strings attached.
If you're doing $5Mâ$20M in revenue, with stable margins, strong retention, and a real niche, youâre probably acquirable. But not because your story is compelling or your product is beautiful. Because someone else can clearly benefit from owning what youâve built.
Buyers donât want to be convinced. They want to be sure.
They want:
Gross margins that can scale
Customers that stick
Systems that run without you
Clean books, contracts, and compliance
Integration that doesnât break what they already have
If youâre founder-dependent, margin-light, or messy under the hood, youâll still get conversations, but not offers.
Thinking about an exit? These are the things that matter more than next quarterâs growth:
Profitability or path to it: No oneâs financing burn in 2025 unless youâre a must-have.
Founder independence: If youâre still approving invoices and running product, thatâs a risk, not a feature.
Deal hygiene: Sloppy books, customer contracts on Notion, or âverbalâ terms donât just slow things down; they erode trust.
Strategic clarity: If itâs not obvious who should buy you and why, you're not positioned; youâre just hoping.
Also, urgency kills value. If youâre exiting because youâre tired or low on cash, your leverage is gone before the first call.
Thinking about your own exit? Start building toward one before you need to. Most great deals go to companies that were prepared, whether they knew it or not. If you're looking to exit, get in touch.
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