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Venture Orphans: M&A and Side-sell Exits

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Hey,

 If your VC partners have recently started ghosting you, and your growth has been... less hockey stick, more flat- then it may be time to consider some side-sell options- you may be a venture orphan.
Also:

📸 -  PE and AI

📊  - Spray and Pray

🆓 - Resources for founders


Welcome to issue 129.

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Not every exit needs a 90-slide deck and 6 months of pitch calls.
If you’re a founder under $1M revenue and just want to sell without the VC dance, Flippa gets it done. No suits, no song and dance, just real buyers.

Get Started

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Social Snapshot

PE

💭 PE and AI by Jason Shuman on X.

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Data Corner

DC 129


The Magic Number for VC Funds

Everyone loves to dunk on “spray and pray.” Because apparently, being selective = being smart. But when Dan Gray at Equidam ran 20,000 simulations of $50M funds, the diversified strategy (100 portcos at $0.4M each) beat the high-conviction one (20 portcos at $2M) almost every time. Higher average returns, higher median, and a 99.7% chance of not losing money. Only the top 5% of funds did better by concentrating.

Translation: unless you're Sequoia, more shots > better aim. Maybe VCs aren’t gods of picking, maybe they’re just clinging to a narrative that flatters them.

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Raising Capital for your startup?

Thunder's mission is to guide founders toward the right path to reach their North Star, be it through securing equity or debt financing or navigating the path to a successful exit. 

Talk to us

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Venture Orphans & Sell‑Side Exits: The Founder’s New Frontier

You raised, you grew, you clicked “next round” in every pitch. But now your board emails go unread, and the checks have dried up. Your investors are onto new unicorns, and you’ve become a venture orphan.

It’s not a failure label. It’s a signal that you have to switch things up.

What is a “venture orphan” in VC?

It's not a commonly used term, so let me break it down: a venture orphan is a startup that still has traction, revenue, customers, maybe even profit, but no active investor champion.

Common triggers:

  • Fund cycle shift: Your backers are chasing deals in their new fund.

  • Plateaued growth: You sit at $2–5M ARR, not on a 3× trajectory.

  • Sponsor departure: The partner who believed in you left, and no one else picked up the torch.

  • Survival mode: You weathered a down quarter or two, enough to drop off the update deck.

Globally, venture deal activity remained robust in Q1 2025, with 3.9k transactions worth $91.5B, but 71% of these were in hot verticals like AI, not in “steady‑state” companies like yours might be (source). Meanwhile, most lower‑middle‑market SaaS M&A deals in 2024 were under $50M, which shows the appetite for smaller, profitable businesses.


Why waiting kills your M&A value

Hope is not a strategy. Every month you wait:

  • Your leverage erodes. A steady but unspectacular track record loses its shine.

  • Leaking momentum: Customers churn. Competitors capture mindshare.

  • Market windows close: Strategic buyers fill their gaps elsewhere.

Last year, overall M&A deal volumes dipped. That means fewer mid‑market acquirers, and more competition for their limited attention.

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The Orphan Index: Know your orphan signals

Before you call for help, you need to figure out where you're at. Ask:

  1. Board Silence: Have you gone 3+ months without an investor meeting?

  2. Funding Gaps: Did your last raise close 12+ months ago, with no follow‑on path?

  3. Sponsor Flight: Has your lead partner left the fund or passed your updates to juniors?

  4. Survival Margin: Are you just breaking even, without a clear 2×–3× growth runway?

If you checked 2+ boxes, consider yourself on the orphan bench, and it’s time to change tactics.

Sell‑Side M&A strategies for startups with silent investors

1. Reframe your story.
You’re not “selling because you failed.” You’re packaging a profitable, low-risk asset that fills a buyer’s strategic puzzle.

2. Run a discreet, structured process.
Inbound interest is a lottery. Instead, build a shortlist of 10–15 targeted acquirers: PE roll‑ups, corporate strategics, growth‑stage companies in adjacent markets, and engage them systematically.

3. Use the Reverse Demo.
Rather than vague teasers, share a co‑development pilot: “Let us integrate our module into your platform for 60 days; see the metrics, talk to customers, then decide on acquisition.” This lowers buyer risk and accelerates term sheet delivery.

4. Leverage your Orphan Index as a selling point.
Frame it: “Our build‑measure‑learn cycle hit a plateau, but that’s exactly why now is the time to bolt feature x into your stack.” Turn your stagnation into strategic alignment.

5. Benchmark with data.
Show how similar deals delivered ROIC within 18 months for strategic buyers. Strengthen your negotiating position.

Beyond M&A: creative exit routes

If a full sale isn’t right, consider hybrid exits:

  • Equity carve‑outs: Spin off your core tech into a subsidiary, sell a majority stake to a PE sponsor, and retain a high‑value royalty on future revenue.

  • Asset licensing: Monetize IP via multi‑year licensing deals, generating non‑dilutive cash while you stay in control.

  • Management buy‑ins: Bring in a small PE firm to buy down your valuation, then co‑lead the next growth phase—sharing risk and reward.

These structures often fly under the radar, but for an orphaned company, they can unlock hidden value without abandoning your vision.

A realistic play looks like:

Situation: My startup raised $12 million Series  A in 2017, hit $1.5 million ARR by 2018 with 1M+ users, then cash got tight and we knew raising a proper Series A was unlikely. 
Diagnosis: Orphan Index score: 3/4 (board was unicorn or bust, competition was outpacing us (Google, Amazon, Microsoft), we were burning a lot of money)
Action: We ran a confidential, hyper-targeted Reverse-Demo with Walmart, Verizon, and Samsung over a 6 month proces when I was planning to sell LiquidSky back in 2018. It lead to Walmart putting in a competitive offer to acquire us which closed by the end of 2018.
Outcome: Some investors made 10x, we retained the value of the company by having running a competitive process. Founders didn't have a great outcome, but it definitely would have been worse if we try to keep going.

Not a 100× outcome like our board wanted, sure, but a real, defendable win.

Being orphaned isn’t death, it’s a CTA:

  • Diagnose your Orphan Index.

  • Embrace a sell‑side mindset.

  • Explore full and hybrid exits.

  • Run a process with professional support.

Time for a plug: at Thunder, we specialize in guiding “off‑plan” founders through this pivot. Because when VCs move on (and they do), you keep building value, and you deserve partners who see it. Hit me up for M&A support.

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Fundraising Resources

💸 - Access working capital fast - Explore options for free

😍 - Free list of AI Recommended VCs - Apply for free

👨‍💻 - Free fundraising coaching session - Schedule 15 minutes with us

📝 - Playbook for Negotiating Term Sheets - Download it Here

💽 - Playbook for Setting Up and Sharing Your Data Room - Download it Here

✉️ - Playbook for Sending Investing Updates - Download it Here

📞 - Guide to Nailing Your First Calls With Investors - Download it Here

📆 - Your 12-month Fundraising Plan- Download it Here

💫 - Pitch deck design services for founders by VCs - Decko

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